Working papers

Source: ArtStore

In this paper, we examine the impact of revolutionary warfare on political preferences in the run-up of 1917 Russian Revolution. We use previously unexplored data from the operations of the Okhrana, the Imperial Russia's secret police, between the late 1880s and the early 1900s, which we cross-reference with collective biographies and other secondary sources. Constructing a measure of local radicalization intensity, we estimate the impact of surveillance on electoral outcomes during the 1917 Constituent Assembly. We measure political support for political parties on both ends of the spectrum in terms of votes cast for the Bolsheviks, the Socialist Revolutionaries and for the Liberals and the Kadets. Firstly, heightened radicalization within local communities resulted in increased polarization in electoral preferences. Secondly, the escalation of revolutionary activities in society boosted the popularity of both left- and right-wing parties, particularly moderate and far-right factions, laying the groundwork for the Civil War. Third, contrary to common portrayals, the Tsarist regime's coercive bureaucracy demonstrated greater sophistication and efficiency, employing a strategic approach that aimed to enhance deterrent and preemptive capabilities. Overall, our research underscores how strong top-down repression can contribute to the formation of distinct national identities.

JEL Classification:  N33, N43, P20, P26, P37, P48, P51

Presented at:  2023 Summer Workshop in the Economic History and Historical Political Economy, Max-Planck PolEcon Summer Workshop, EHES 2023, EHA 2023 & ASSA 2024 (scheduled)

Source: David Rumsey Map Collection

This paper investigates the effects of the Soviet Union's forced deportation of 2.8 million citizens from nine ethnic groups between 1937 and 1944. These individuals were relocated to Central Asia and Siberia and placed under a "special settler regime" that deprived them of political and administrative rights and mandated the NKVD to organize their labor relations. Using the 1956 Rehabilitation Decree as an instrument for the randomness of the rehabilitation decision, this study examines the cross-effects of this quasi-experiment on the local labor market and education sector. The results suggest that the "special settler regime" did not provide any support for non-Slavic host region populations to advance in employment or education. However, rehabilitated ethnic groups experienced positive effects on higher education and white-collar employment in both host and origin regions. Additionally, the paper investigates whether ethnic violence resulted in an upsurge of votes in the 1991 referendum to stay in the Soviet Union, as well as more protests and unrest in the late Soviet Union. The findings indicate that individuals who were deported showed more support for preserving the Soviet Union, while rehabilitated groups exhibited reduced protest behavior. However, permanently exiled groups that evaded deportation from their origin regions experienced an increase in protests and unrest, an effect that is reversed in similar magnitude for the host regions. My findings remain robust even after accounting for education, employment, and historical violence.

JEL Classification:  D74, E65, I25, N34, O11, P16, R12

Presented at: the Economic History Colloquium at Humboldt University 2021, the X. ICCEES World Congress 2021 in Montreal, the SES 2022, the Clio 2022, the 6th GCEG in Dublin, CEPR Economic History Symposium 2022, the 8th IAAE 2022, 17th EACES 2022, the 8th Annual Meeting of the Danish and Scandinavian Economic Society, the CEECON 2022 in Berlin, NEUDC 2022, ASEEES 2022, ASSA 2023, RES and SES Joint Annual Meeting 2023.

Network theory is used to examine East Germany's dual dictatorship past, which is seen as the cause of higher levels of ethnocentrism and xenophobia among contemporary East Germans compared to West Germans. Within an intergenerational DeGroot framework, interactions between dynasties embedded in a network of social interactions are examined. A network cannot be abandoned by its dynasties, nor can it accept new members. All dynasties interact with each other and update their information based on a rule. The actions of dynasties indirectly affect each other's descendants through spillover effects in incentives and through strategic externalities arising from hidden beliefs. A central planner can intervene to change individuals' incentives through central schooling and upward mobility. The goal is to understand how the planner can intervene specifically in the presence of these dynasties and their constraints. This helps explain how a regime stabilizes itself and how it reaches homogeneity among its citizens. 

JEL Classification:  H11, N33, N43, P20, P26, P37, P48, P51

Presented at: 2022 ASREC conference (virtual)